I ran a logistic regression model and made predictions of the logit values. I used this to get the points on the ROC curve:
from sklearn import metrics
fpr, tpr, thresholds = metrics.roc_curve(Y_test,p)
I know metrics.roc_auc_score gives the area under the ROC curve. Can anyone tell me what command will find the optimal cut-off point (threshold value)?
Vanilla Python Implementation of Youden's J-Score
def cutoff_youdens_j(fpr,tpr,thresholds):
j_scores = tpr-fpr
j_ordered = sorted(zip(j_scores,thresholds))
return j_ordered[-1][1]
It can be computed as:
# calculate the g-mean for each threshold
gmeans = sqrt(tpr * (1-fpr))
# locate the index of the largest g-mean
ix = argmax(gmeans)
print('Best Threshold=%f, G-Mean=%.3f' % (thresholds[ix], gmeans[ix]))
You can do this using the epi package in R, however I could not find similar package or example in Python.
The optimal cut off point would be where “true positive rate” is high and the “false positive rate” is low. Based on this logic, I have pulled an example below to find optimal threshold.
Python code:
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api as sm
import pylab as pl
import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics import roc_curve, auc
# read the data in
df = pd.read_csv("http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/data/binary.csv")
# rename the 'rank' column because there is also a DataFrame method called 'rank'
df.columns = ["admit", "gre", "gpa", "prestige"]
# dummify rank
dummy_ranks = pd.get_dummies(df['prestige'], prefix='prestige')
# create a clean data frame for the regression
cols_to_keep = ['admit', 'gre', 'gpa']
data = df[cols_to_keep].join(dummy_ranks.iloc[:, 'prestige_2':])
# manually add the intercept
data['intercept'] = 1.0
train_cols = data.columns[1:]
# fit the model
result = sm.Logit(data['admit'], data[train_cols]).fit()
print result.summary()
# Add prediction to dataframe
data['pred'] = result.predict(data[train_cols])
fpr, tpr, thresholds =roc_curve(data['admit'], data['pred'])
roc_auc = auc(fpr, tpr)
print("Area under the ROC curve : %f" % roc_auc)
####################################
# The optimal cut off would be where tpr is high and fpr is low
# tpr - (1-fpr) is zero or near to zero is the optimal cut off point
####################################
i = np.arange(len(tpr)) # index for df
roc = pd.DataFrame({'fpr' : pd.Series(fpr, index=i),'tpr' : pd.Series(tpr, index = i), '1-fpr' : pd.Series(1-fpr, index = i), 'tf' : pd.Series(tpr - (1-fpr), index = i), 'thresholds' : pd.Series(thresholds, index = i)})
roc.iloc[(roc.tf-0).abs().argsort()[:1]]
# Plot tpr vs 1-fpr
fig, ax = pl.subplots()
pl.plot(roc['tpr'])
pl.plot(roc['1-fpr'], color = 'red')
pl.xlabel('1-False Positive Rate')
pl.ylabel('True Positive Rate')
pl.title('Receiver operating characteristic')
ax.set_xticklabels([])
The optimal cut off point is 0.317628, so anything above this can be labeled as 1 else 0. You can see from the output/chart that where TPR is crossing 1-FPR the TPR is 63%, FPR is 36% and TPR-(1-FPR) is nearest to zero in the current example.
1-fpr fpr tf thresholds tpr
171 0.637363 0.362637 0.000433 0.317628 0.637795
Hope this is helpful.
Given tpr, fpr, thresholds from your question, the answer for the optimal threshold is just:
optimal_idx = np.argmax(tpr - fpr)
optimal_threshold = thresholds[optimal_idx]